Right Deductible Quiz

Every $1,000 of deductible you accept typically saves $400–$800/year in premium. So the question becomes: what’s the probability you’ll blow through the higher deductible in a typical year?

If you’re expected to spend $500/year and the choice is between a $2k deductible at $500/mo or a $5k deductible at $400/mo, the HDHP saves $1,200/year and your out-of-pocket doesn’t change (both plans make you pay $500). In a bad year where you spend $6k, the HDHP costs you $5k deductible + premiums; the PPO costs you $2k deductible + coinsurance + premiums — total difference maybe $1,500 in your favor on the PPO. But in 9 out of 10 typical years, the HDHP wins.

The quiz outputs a typical-case recommendation. Ignore it and go lower-deductible if:

• You’re planning pregnancy (average total cost $18k–$30k, you’ll hit any deductible)
• You have a scheduled surgery on the calendar
• You’re undergoing IVF (multiple cycles can exceed $50k)
• You’ve had two “unexpected” $5k+ medical events in 3 years — it’s not unexpected anymore

Ignore it and go higher-deductible (HDHP) if you qualify and will actually fund the HSA. The HSA tax break + compounding are that powerful.

A 30-year-old in a 32% combined bracket who maxes the family HSA ($8,550 in 2026, rising with inflation) and invests it in an S&P 500 index fund at 7% real return accumulates roughly $1.28M by age 65. They pay zero federal tax on contributions, zero tax on growth, and zero tax on qualified medical withdrawals (which will include Medicare premiums in retirement).

If they never touch it for medical expenses, they can save receipts and withdraw past medical expenses tax-free at any time. After 65, non-medical withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income (same as a traditional IRA). It is the most tax-efficient account in the US code.

Every open enrollment, millions of people pick the lowest-premium plan and walk away. That ignores deductible, copay structure, coinsurance rate, and out-of-pocket max — the four numbers that actually determine what you pay.

Before you enroll, run the Health Insurance Total Cost Calculator with three scenarios: low usage, typical usage, bad year. Look at annual total cost, not monthly premium. The plan that looks cheapest often isn’t.

Raising your home deductible from $1,000 to $2,500 typically saves 12–18% on premium — call it $150–$250/year on a $1,400 premium. The claim probability for a $1k–$2.5k loss in a given year is maybe 4–6%. So expected-value savings of $150–$230/year vs $0–$75/year expected claim cost. Higher deductible wins on expected value.

Same logic for auto collision/comprehensive. Raising from $500 to $1,000 saves $80–$140/year in premium; claim probability for that delta is ~8–12%. Higher deductible again wins on expected value for a driver with claim-free history. Run specifics through the Insurance Deductible Optimizer.

1. Pull all plans your employer or marketplace offers. List premium, deductible, OOP max, coinsurance, HSA eligibility.
2. Apply the quiz result to narrow to 2–3 finalist plans.
3. Run each through the Total Cost Calculator at typical-year and bad-year scenarios.
4. If HDHP wins, confirm your employer offers an HSA contribution match. Many add $500–$1,500/year.
5. Decide in one sitting — don’t let enrollment deadline creep up.

Review every year at open enrollment. Your health and savings change; the right deductible for 2026 may not be the right one for 2028.